Mortality patterns in municipalities of a mining region before the Brumadinho dam failure, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil / Padrões de mortalidade em municípios de uma região mineradora antes do rompimento da barragem de Brumadinho, Minas Gerais, Brasil

ABSTRACT Objective: To describe the patterns of overall mortality and mortality from external causes and the temporal evolution in the municipalities of the Paraopeba River Basin, before the socio-environmental disaster of the Brumadinho dam and, additionally, to investigate the correlation between mortality and socioeconomic deprivation in these municipalities. Methods: Global Burden of Disease Study mortality estimates for 26 municipalities in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, were analyzed. Rates of overall mortality and mortality from external causes were estimated in the triennia (T) T1 (2000 to 2002), T2 (2009 to 2011), and T3 (2016 to 2018). Pearson's correlation coefficient measured the association between mortality rates and socioeconomic deprivation, according to the Brazilian Deprivation Index (IBP). Results: There was a decrease in overall mortality in the Paraopeba River Basin from 717.7/100 thousand to 572.6/100 thousand inhabitants, and in most municipalities between T1-T3. Mortality from external causes increased from 73.3/100 thousand to 82.1/100 thousand, and it was higher in these municipalities compared with the mean for Brazil and Minas Gerais. Deaths from suicide and interpersonal violence increased from 29.6/100 thousand to 43.2/100 thousand in most of the 26 municipalities. Death rates due to unintentional injuries decreased during the period, and those due to transport injuries, increased. There was a positive correlation between socioeconomic deprivation and the percent change in mortality rates. Conclusion: Despite the strong presence of mining activity in the region, such did not reflect in the improvement of the sanitary situation. Death rates due to external causes increased in the period, associated with inequalities, which must be considered in the planning for the recovery of the disaster areas.

RESUMO: Objetivo: Descrever os padrões de mortalidade geral e por causas externas e a evolução temporal nos municípios da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Paraopeba previamente ao desastre socioambiental de Brumadinho e, adicionalmente, investigar a correlação entre a mortalidade e a privação socioeconômica nesses municípios. Métodos: Foram analisadas estimativas de mortalidade do Estudo Carga Global de Doenças referentes a 26 municípios de Minas Gerais. Calcularam-se taxas de mortalidade geral e por causas externas nos triênios (T) T1 (2000 a 2002), T2 (2009 a 2011) e T3 (2016 a 2018). O coeficiente de correlação de Pearson mediu associação entre as taxas de mortalidade e a privação socioeconômica, segundo Índice Brasileiro de Privação. Resultados: Houve declínio da mortalidade geral na Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Paraopeba de 717,7/100.000 para 572,6/100.000 hab. e na maioria dos municípios entre T1-T3. A mortalidade por causas externas aumentou de 73,3/100.000 para 82,1/100.000 e foi mais elevada nesses municípios comparando-se com a média do Brasil e de Minas Gerais. As mortes por suicídio e violência interpessoal aumentaram de 29,6/100.000 para 43,2/100.000 na maioria dos 26 municípios. Os acidentes não intencionais reduziram-se no período, e as taxas por acidente de transporte aumentaram. Houve correlação positiva entre a privação socioeconômica e a variação percentual das taxas de mortalidade. Conclusão: Apesar da forte presença da atividade mineradora na região, isso não refletiu na melhoria do quadro sanitário, as causas externas aumentaram no período, associadas às desigualdades, o que deve ser considerado no planejamento para a recuperação das áreas do desastre.

Incidence and mortality rates of lip, oral cavity, and pharynx cancers in Brazil: time-trend and age-period-cohort analysis from the last 30 years, Global Burden of Disease Study

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Cancers are the second main cause of morbidity worldwide, but robust information on lip, oral cavity, and pharynx cancers in Brazil is lacking. This study aimed to analyze the trends of incidence and mortality caused by lip, oral cavity, and pharynx cancers and age-period-cohort effects in the Brazilian population of 30 years of age and over, in the period of 1990 to 2019. METHODS: A time series study of the incidence and mortality rates for oral cavity and pharynx cancer ("Lip and oral cavity cancer", "Nasopharynx cancer", and "Other pharynx cancer") was conducted, with corrected data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. Age-standardized rates per 100,000 inhabitants, for the global population, were gathered according to the individuals' sex. The annual average percentage change (AAPC) was estimated, as was the age-period-cohort effects. RESULTS: The incidence and mortality rates were higher for men in the studied anatomical regions. The cancers tended to decrease for men, except for nasopharynx cancer, which increased in individuals of both sexes. Mortality tended to present a decline in most of the groups studied. For men and women, the age-period-cohort model presented a better adjustment for both incidence and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Incidence and mortality caused by the main head and neck cancers showed a tendency to decline over the past 30 years in Brazil, except for nasopharynx cancer, which showed an increase in incidence and mortality in some segments of the population. Higher rates were found for lip and oral cavity cancers in men.

Physical activity to prevent stroke mortality in Brazil (1990-2019)

Abstract INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to estimate the burden of stroke mortality due to low levels of physical activity (PA) in Brazil from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study for Brazil and Brazilian states were used. We used the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rates, summary exposure value, and fraction of population risk attributable to low levels of PA. To standardize all estimates, data from the population aged 25 years or older were considered. RESULTS: The risk of exposure to low PA, SEV values, for the Brazilian male population was 11.8% (95%UI: 6.7; 19.9) and for the Brazilian female population was 13.2% (95%UI: 8.6; 19.2) in 2019. For males, it was estimated that there were, respectively, 2,025 (95%UI: 271; 4,839) and 3,595 (95%UI: 658; 7,302) deaths in 1990 and 2019 due to stroke attributable to low PA. For females, there were 2,518 (95%UI: 498; 5,006) and 4,735 (95%UI: 1,286; 8,495) deaths in 1990 and 2019 due to stroke attributable to low PA, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, reductions of 44.0% for males (95%UI: −0.54; -0.05) and 52.0% for females (95%UI: −0.60; -0.30) in age-standardized mortality rates due to stroke attributed to low PA were observed. Approximately 6.1% (for males) and 7.3% (for females) of deaths in 2019 due to stroke could be avoided if the Brazilian population were physically active. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the promotion of PA in all Brazilian states for preventing early mortality due to stroke.

Trend of the Burden of Larynx Cancer in Brazil, 1990 to 2019

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Larynx cancer is one of the most common head and neck cancers, whose main risk factors are smoking and alcohol use, and its occurrence and prognosis depend on adequate and timely preventive measures. This study aimed to investigate the burden of larynx cancer in Brazil and its states. METHODS: Using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, this study analyzed the trends of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for larynx cancer between 1990 and 2019, besides the mortality-to-incidence ratio and the socio demographic index. RESULTS: Incidence and mortality due to larynx cancer in Brazil, which are approximately eight-fold higher for men, showed a declining trend between 1990 and 2019 (APPC: -0.4% and -1.0%, respectively). The DALYs also showed negative variation between 1990 and 2019 for both sexes in Brazil, mainly due to the decrease in premature deaths, with the greatest reduction in the state of São Paulo. For the states of Brazil in 2019, the higher age-standardized incidence rate (Rio Grande do Sul, 3.83 cases per 100,000 inhabitants) is twice the lowest rate (Piauí, 1.56 cases per 100,000 inhabitants). CONCLUSIONS: A fall in the burden of larynx cancer was observed in Brazil over the past 30 years, which may be attributed to a reduction in smoking and to an improvement in treatment. However, the regional inequalities in the country remain evident, especially for males. This data can guide public policy priorities to control the disease in Brazil.

The burden of suicide in Brazil: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Suicide deaths varies according to location, sex, and age. This study analyzed the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) concerning suicide in Brazil. METHODS: This study described the mortality and years of life lost (YLL) due to premature death caused by suicide in Brazil in 1990 and 2019. The numbers, crude and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and YLL were compared among Brazilian states, age groups, and sexes. RESULTS: There were 13,502 suicides in Brazil in 2019, 46.00% more than in 1990. The crude mortality rate increased 0.32%, while the ASMR declined -21.68% during the period. Crude and age-standardized YLL rates declined by -7.24% and -18.38%, respectively. In 2019, the biggest ASMRs were found in the South, whereas from 1990 to 2019, the ASMR declined in the South, Southeast, and Midwest, and increased in the Northeast. The number of suicides was higher among individuals aged 15-49 years, and suicide rates were higher among those aged over 70 years. From 1990 to 2019, an increase in the rate was found only of 10-14 years of age. Suicide was highest in men, except in the 10-14-year age group, ranking third in mortality among men of 15-34 years of age and fourth among women of 15-24 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: The ASMR and YLL for suicide declined since 1990, but suicide remains an important factor of mortality in the country. The South Region, men, elderly, and youth should be priorities in the implementation of suicide prevention strategies in Brazil.

The burden of mental disorders attributable by cocaine use: Global Burden of Diseases Study in Brazil, 1990 and 2019

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Brazil is an important consumer market for cocaine. However, the consequences of this consumption and the pattern of distribution of the estimates are still poorly studied in the Brazilian states. The Global Burden of Disease study - 2019 (GBD-2019) has enabled us to describe and analyze indicators of mental disorders (MD) attributable by cocaine use in Brazil and its states, in 1990 and 2019. METHODS: A descriptive study of the burden of cocaine use disorders, using prevalence, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), years of life lost (YLL) due to premature death, years lived with disabilities (YLD), and disability adjusted life years (DALY), which accounts for YLL+YLD. RESULTS: Brazil ranks 8th as DALYs due to cocaine use disorder in the world (42.83/100.000; 95% uncertainty intervals [95% UI]: 35.28 to 61.43). Significant increases have occurred in the age-standardized rate prevalence (ASRP), ASMR, DALY, YLD, and YLL, in Brazil and its states, between 1990 and 2019. The ASRP in 2019 was 2.7-fold higher for men (278.60/100.000; 95% UI: 208.20 to 374.39) in comparison to women (104.01/100.000; 95% UI: 76.70 to 143.02). There is a predominance of YLD in the composition of DALYs; however, the YLL had the biggest increases between 1990 and 2019. CONCLUSIONS: The high rate of DALYs and the increase in mortality rates show the need to scale up effective interventions to prevent and reduce the burden of disease attributable to cocaine use disorder, which is a preventable cause of death and disability.

Road traffic injuries and deaths and the achievement of UN Sustainable Development Goals in Brazil: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study, 1990 to 2019

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Brazil ranks 5th in the number of deaths due to road injuries. This study aimed to analyze mortality and disabilities resulting from road injuries in Brazil, and to assess the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) target of reducing deaths due to road injuries by 50% by 2030. METHODS: This descriptive and exploratory study used the estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2019: indicators of mortality, premature deaths, and disabilities according to sex, age group, and type of transport for 1990, 2015, and 2019. Time trends in mortality rates from 1990 to 2019 were assessed, and a projection for 2030 was calculated, applying a linear regression model. RESULTS: Deaths due to road injuries were 44,236 in 1990, and 44,529 in 2019, representing a 43% reduction in mortality rates. The highest rates were in the North, Northeast, and Midwest regions of Brazil, in males and young adults. A 77% reduction was observed in mortality rates for pedestrians and an increase of 53% for motorcyclists and of 54% for cyclists during the period. In terms of motorcycle road injuries, the mortality rate for men increased from 7.3/100,000 (1990) to 11.7/100,000 inhabitants (2019). The rates of premature deaths and disabilities were also higher for men when compared to women. Amputations, fractures, spinal cord injuries, and head trauma were the main types of road injuries. The projections for 2030 show that Brazil might not reach the SDG target. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the decline in mortality rates, the 2030 Agenda's target might not be achieved.

Mortality and years of life lost to death or disability by interpersonal violence against women in Brazil: Global Burden of Disease Study, 1990 and 2019

Abstract INTRODUCTION Aggression against women is an important cause of morbidity and death. This study compares the variation of deaths and years of life lost to death or disability (DALY) caused by interpersonal violence against women in Brazil and its states. METHODS This descriptive study analyzed estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) referring to interpersonal violence against women, aged 15 to 49 years, examining the mortality and DALY rates for Brazil and its states, in 1990 and 2019. RESULTS In this study, 3,168 deaths of women between 15 and 49 years of age, caused by interpersonal violence, were estimated in 1990, and 4,262 in 2019, which represents an increase of 33.8%. Regardless of the Maria da Penha Law and the progress in policies for curbing violence against women, one can observe a stability in the mortality and DALY rates in most of the Brazilian states. Only Bahia had a significant increase in those rates, while Federal District, Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo showed a significant decline. CONCLUSIONS The rates of female homicide have remained stable when comparing 1990 and 2019. Although there were improvements in terms of women's rights in the early 2000's, the chauvinist and conservative society of Brazil has not been able to protect women, and the country might not reach the targets established by the UN's 2030 Agenda.

Premature mortality due to four main non-communicable diseases and suicide in Brazil and its states from 1990 to 2019: A Global Burden of Disease Study

Abstract INTRODUCTION: The goal of reducing the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) requires close monitoring. Our objective is to characterize the decline of premature NCD mortality in Brazil based on Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Study 2019 estimates. METHODS: We used GBD 2019 data to estimate death rates of the four main NCDs - cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases. We estimated the unconditional probability of death between ages 30 to 69, as recommended by the World Health Organization, as well as premature crude- and age-standardized death rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost for these conditions. We also estimated trends in suicide (self-harm) death rates. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2019, the age-standardized unconditional probability of premature death declined -1.4%/year (UI: -1.7%;-1.0%) . Age-standardized death rates declined -1.5%/year (UI: -1.9%; -1.2%), and crude death rates -0.6%/year (UI: (-1.0%; -0.2%). Level of development correlated strongly with the rate of decline, with greatest declines occurring in the Southeast, Center West and South regions. Age-standardized mortality from self-harm declined, most notably in the elderly. CONCLUSIONS: Premature mortality due to the main NCDs has declined from 1990 in Brazil, although at a diminishing rate over time. The unconditional probability of death and the age-standardized mortality rate produced similar estimates of decline for the four main NCDs, and mirror well decline in mortality from all NCDs. Declines, especially more recent ones, fall short of the international goals. Strategic public health actions are needed. The challenge to implement them will be great, considering the political and economic instability currently faced by Brazil.

Suicide mortality among older adults in Brazil between 2000 and 2019 - estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Older adults present a higher risk of suicide, and Brazil is experiencing a fast population aging. To understand the impact of demographic transition, we compared Brazilian suicide mortality rates (MR) among adults (50+ years) with global rates, those from one high-income country, and those from one middle-income country. Looking for regional disparities, the MR was analyzed among older adults (60+ years) by Brazilian states. METHODS: This was an ecological study based on estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study, from 2000 to 2019. Age-standardized MR and age-specific MR per 100,000 inhabitants were described, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). RESULTS: During the period, the annual estimates and the declining trend in mortality were higher in the world than in the studied countries. In 2019, global age-standardized MR was 9.39 (95% UI 8.48-10.29), compared to 5.68 (95% UI 5.40-6.19), 6.01 (95% UI 5.10-7.04), and 6.63 (95% UI 6.43-6.95) in Brazil, Mexico, and England, respectively. In Brazil, despite a significant decline in national rates, stability was observed in 15 states. An increase in aging was only found for men, who presented 3-4 times higher MR than women. The states' rates presented large differences: in 2019, the rates among men aged 60-64 years varied from 7.24 (95% UI 5.31; 9.85) to 26.32 (95% UI 20.21; 34.50). CONCLUSIONS: The smaller decline in suicide mortality among older Brazilian adults, the increasing risk with aging, and the higher mortality among men indicate the need for specific prevention policies. The variation within states suggests differences in the data quality or in socio-cultural and historical aspects, which requires further investigation.

Exposure to and Burden of Major Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factors in Brazil and its States, 1990-2019: The Global Burden of Disease Study

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) have become the main cause of disease burden in Brazil. Our objective was to describe trends (1990 to 2019) in prevalence and attributable burden of five modifiable risk factors and related metabolic risk factors in Brazil and its states. METHODS: In Global Burden of Disease 2019 analyses, we described trends in prevalence of modifiable risk factors and their metabolic mediators as percentage change in Summary Exposure Value (SEV). We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to the risk factors. RESULTS: Age-adjusted exposures to alcohol [41.0%, Uncertainty Interval (UI): 24.2 - 63.4], red meat (61.2%, UI: 42.4-92.3), low physical activity (3.9%, UI: -5-17.5) and ambient particulate matter pollution (3.3%, UI: -48.9-128.0) have worsened. Those for smoking (-51.4%, UI: -54.7- - 47.8), diet low in fruits (-28.1%, UI: -39.1- -18.7) and vegetables (-19.6%, UI: -32.7 - -8.7), and household air pollution (-85.3%, UI: -92.9- -74.3) have improved. All mediating metabolic risk factors, except high blood pressure (0.7%, UI: -6.9-8.3), have worsened: BMI (110.2%, UI: 78.6-161.7), hyperglycemia (15.1%, UI: 9.3-21.2), kidney dysfunction (12.0%, UI: 8.4-17.2), and high LDL-c (11.8%, UI: 6.9-17.2). CONCLUSIONS: A variable pattern of progress and failure in controlling modifiable risk factors has been accompanied by major worsening in most metabolic risk factors. The mixed success in public health measures to control modifiable risk factors for NCDs, when gauged by the related trends in metabolic risk factors, alert to the need for stronger actions to control NCDs in the future.

Prostate cancer mortality in Brazil 1990-2019: geographical distribution and trends

Abstract INTRODUCTION: To analyze the trend of prostate cancer mortality in the Brazilian population of 40 years of age and above. METHODS: Time series ecological study of the mortality rates due to prostate cancer in men of 40 years of age and above, using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD). Age-standardized mortality rates were calculated, as well as the age-standardized rates by the GBD for the global population, per 100,000 inhabitants, for Brazil and its States, from 1990 to 2019. The annual average percent change (AAPC) was calculated to identify the mortality trends in Brazil, through linear regression using the Joinpoint Regression Program. RESULTS: The standardized rates of prostate cancer mortality in Brazil were 76.89 in 1990 and 74.96 deaths for every 100 thousand men ≥ 40 years of age in 2019, with a stability trend. By age group, it was observed a decreasing trend up to 79 years of age, and an increasing trend as of 80 years of age. The state of Bahia showed the highest increase in mortality in the period (1.2%/year), followed by Maranhão and Pernambuco (1.0 and 0.9%/year). A decrease of prostate cancer mortality was found in the Federal District, Goiás, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul, Roraima, Santa Catarina, São Paulo, and Sergipe. CONCLUSIONS: In Brazil, the standardized mortality rates show a trend toward stability from 1990 to 2019 and no pattern was observed for the trends according to the Brazilian States.

Maternal Mortality in Brazil, 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Abstract INTRODUCTION Maternal death continues to be one of the most challenging public health problems that needs to be addressed in low and middle-income countries. The objective of this study was to describe the problem of maternal death in Brazil, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD). METHODS This study used data from the GBD 2019 to show the numbers of deaths and the Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) - number of deaths/100,000 live births - in Brazil and its 27 Federated Units (FU), for ages 10 to 54 years, from 1990 to 2019. The annual variation of the MMR was estimated in 1990, 2010, and 2019. The MMR were shown for specific causes as well as for five-year age groups. The estimates were presented with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). RESULTS The number of maternal deaths, as well as the MMR showed a 49% reduction from 1990 to 2019. This reduction occurred heterogeneously throughout the country, and the profile of the MMR for specific causes changed between 1990 and 2019: from hypertensive gestation diseases, to indirect maternal deaths, followed by hypertensive gestation diseases. In the extreme age groups, the MMR is higher, with mortality increasing exponentially in direct proportion with age. CONCLUSIONS Maternal deaths in Brazil have decreased substantially since 1990; however, the numbers still fall short of what was established by the World Health Organization (WHO). Indirect causes are the greatest problem in more than 60% of the FU, especially for hypertensive pregnancy diseases.

Mortalidade de adolescentes e adultos jovens brasileiros entre 1990 e 2019: uma análise do estudo Carga Global de Doença / Mortality among Brazilian adolescents and young adults between 1990 to 2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study

Resumo Trata-se de análise de indicadores de mortalidade de brasileiros com idades entre 10 e 24 anos. Foram analisados os dados do Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019, utilizando números absolutos, proporção de óbitos e taxas de mortalidade específicas entre 1990 e 2019, segundo faixa etária (10 a 14, 15 a 19 e 20 a 24 anos), sexo e causas de morte para Brasil, regiões e estados brasileiros. Houve redução de 11,8% nas taxas de mortalidade de indivíduos com idades entre 10 e 24 anos no período investigado. Em 2019, ocorreram 13.459 mortes entre mulheres, correspondendo à redução de 30,8% no período. Entre homens ocorreram 39.362 óbitos, redução de apenas 6,2%. Houve aumento das taxas de mortalidade no Norte e Nordeste e redução em estados do Sudeste e Sul. Em 2019, entre mulheres a primeira causa de morte foram lesões por transporte, seguidas por violência interpessoal, mortes maternas e suicídio. Para os homens, a violência interpessoal foi a primeira causa de morte, em especial no Nordeste, seguida das lesões por transporte, do suicídio e dos afogamentos. Execuções policiais passaram do 77º para o 6º lugar. Este estudo revelou desigualdades na mortalidade de adolescentes e adultos jovens segundo sexo, causas de óbito, regiões e estados brasileiros.

Abstract Mortality indicators for Brazilians aged between 10 and 24 years old were analyzed. Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 Study, and absolute numbers, proportion of deaths and specific mortality rates from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed, according to age group (10 to 14, 15 to 19 and 20 to 24 years), sex and causes of death for Brazil, regions and Brazilian states. There was a reduction of 11.8% in the mortality rates of individuals aged between 10 and 24 years in the investigated period. In 2019, there were 13,459 deaths among women, corresponding to a reduction of 30.8% in the period. Among men there were 39,362 deaths, a reduction of only 6.2%. There was an increase in mortality rates in the North and Northeast and a reduction in the Southeast and South states. In 2019, the leading cause of death among women was traffic injuries, followed by interpersonal violence, maternal deaths and suicide. For men, interpersonal violence was the leading cause of death, especially in the Northeast, followed by traffic injuries, suicide and drowning. Police executions moved from 77th to 6th place. This study revealed inequalities in the mortality of adolescents and young adults according to sex, causes of death, regions and Brazilian states.

A pandemia da COVID-19 no Brasil: a série de projeções do Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation e a evolução observada, maio a agosto de 2020 / La Pandemia de COVID-19 en Brasil: Serie de Proyecciones del Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation y la Evolución Observada, desde mayo hasta agosto, 2020 / The COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projections and observed evolution, May-August, 2020

Objetivo: Descrever as projeções do Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) para a COVID-19 no Brasil e seus estados, apresentar sua acurácia e discutir suas implicações. Métodos: As previsões do IHME de maio a agosto de 2020, para o Brasil e alguns estados, foram comparadas ao número de mortes cumulativas observadas. Resultados: A projeção prevê 182.809 mortes causadas pela pandemia até 1º de dezembro de 2020 no Brasil. O aumento no uso de máscara poderia poupar ~17 mil óbitos. O erro médio no número acumulado de óbitos em duas, quatro e seis semanas das projeções foi de 13%, 18% e 22% respectivamente. Conclusão: Projeções de curto e médio prazo dispõem dados importantes e acurácia suficiente para informar os gestores de saúde, autoridades eleitas e sociedade geral. Após trajeto difícil até agosto, a pandemia, conforme as projeções, terá declínio sustentado, embora demorado, causando em média 400 óbitos/dia no início de dezembro.

Objetivo: Describir las proyecciones del Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation para COVID-19 en Brasil y sus estados, presentar su precisión y discutir sus implicaciones. Métodos Las previsiones del IHME de mayo a agosto de 2020 para Brasil y algunos estados, se compararon con las muertes acumuladas observadas. Resultados La proyección prevé 182.809 muertes por la pandemia hasta el 1º de diciembre de 2020 en Brasil. Un aumento en el uso de mascarillas podría evitar ~17.000 muertes. El error medio en el número acumulado de muertes en 2, 4 y 6 semanas de las proyecciones fue de 13%, 18% y 22%. Conclusión: Las proyecciones de corto y medio plazo proporcionan datos importantes y con suficiente precisión para informar a los administradores de salud, autoridades electas y a la sociedad. Después de un camino difícil hasta agosto, la pandemia, según las proyecciones, tendrá una disminución sostenida, pero lenta, y seguirá causando alrededor de 400 muertes/día a principios de diciembre.

Objective: To describe the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and the Brazilian states, present their accuracy and discuss their implications. Methods: The IHME projections from May to August 2020 for Brazil and selected states were compared with the ensuing reported number of cumulative deaths. Results: The pandemic was projected to cause 182,809 deaths by December 1, 2020 in Brazil. An increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~17,000. The mean error in the cumulative number of deaths at 2, 4 and 6 weeks after the projections were made was 13%, 18% and 22%, respectively. Conclusion: Short and medium-term projections provide important and sufficiently accurate data to inform health managers, elected officials, and society at large. After following an arduous course up until August, the pandemic is projected to decline steadily although slowly, with ~400 deaths/day still occurring in early December.

Quality of cause-of-death data in Brazil: Garbage codes among registered deaths in 2000 and 2015 / Qualidade dos dados sobre causas de morte no Brasil: códigos garbage nos

ABSTRACT Introduction: reliability of mortality data is essential for health assessment and planning. In Brazil, a high proportion of deaths is attributed to causes that should not be considered as underlying causes of deaths, named garbage codes (GC). To tackle this issue, in 2005, the Brazilian Ministry of Health (MoH) implements the investigation of GC-R codes (codes from chapter 18 "Symptoms, signs and abnormal clinical and laboratory findings, not elsewhere classified, ICD-10") to improve the quality of cause-of-death data. This study analyzes the GC cause of death, considered as the indicator of data quality, in Brazil, regions, states and municipalities in 2000 and 2015. Methods: death records from the Brazilian Mortality Information System (SIM) were used. Analysis was performed for two GC groups: R codes and non-R codes, such as J18.0-J18.9 (Pneumonia unspecified). Crude and age-standardized rates, number of deaths and proportions were considered. Results: an overall improvement in the quality of mortality data in 2015 was detected, with variations among regions, age groups and size of municipalities. The improvement in the quality of mortality data in the Northeastern and Northern regions for GC-R codes is emphasized. Higher GC rates were observed among the older adults (60+ years old). The differences among the areas observed in 2015 were smaller. Conclusion: the efforts of the MoH in implementing the investigation of GC-R codes have contributed to the progress of data quality. Investment is still necessary to improve the quality of cause-of-death statistics.

RESUMO Introdução: a confiabilidade dos dados de mortalidade é essencial para avaliação e planejamento da saúde. No Brasil, uma alta proporção de óbitos é atribuída a causas que não devem ser consideradas como causa básica (CBO) de óbitos, códigos garbage (CG). Para enfrentar essa questão, em 2005 o Ministério da Saúde (MS) implementou a investigação de CG-códigos R (capítulo 18 "Sintomas, sinais e achados anormais de exames clínicos e de laboratório, não classificados em outra parte, CID-10") para reduzir o impacto do erro de classificação das CBO. O estudo analisa os óbitos classificados como CG, considerados indicadores de qualidade dos dados, para o Brasil, regiões, estados e municípios, em 2000 e 2015. Métodos: utilizaram-se os registros de óbitos do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM). A análise foi realizada para dois grupos de CG: códigos R e não códigos R, como J18.0-J18.9 Pneumonias não especificadas). Consideraram-se as taxas, brutas e ajustadas por idade, número absoluto e proporção dos óbitos. Resultados: foi observada melhoria global na qualidade dos dados de mortalidade em 2015, com variações entre regiões, idade e porte dos municípios. Destaca-se melhoria na qualidade dos dados de mortalidade das regiões Nordeste e Norte para o CG-códigos R. Maiores taxas de CG foram observadas entre idosos. Diferenças regionais observadas em 2015 foram menores. Conclusão: os esforços do MS na implementação da investigação de CG-códigos R contribuíram para progresso na qualidade dos dados. Ainda é necessário investir em melhorias adicionais na qualidade das estatísticas das causas de mortes.

Burden of ischemic heart disease mortality attributable to physical inactivity in Brazil

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze if the burden of ischemic heart disease mortality trend attributed to physical inactivity in Brazil differs from the global estimates. METHODS Databases from the Global Burden of Disease Study for Brazil, Brazilian states, and global information were used. We estimated the summary exposure value for physical inactivity, the total number of deaths, and the age-standardized death rates for ischemic heart disease attributed to physical inactivity in the years 1990 and 2015, and the population-attributable fraction. Data were presented according to sex. RESULTS The Brazilian population was found to have a risk of exposure to physical inactivity varying between 70.4% for men and 75.7% for women in the year of 1990. This risk of exposure was similar in 2015. In men, the mortality rate from ischemic heart disease attributed to physical inactivity decreased in 2015 by approximately 24% around the world and 45% in Brazil. For women, this decrease was in 31% around the world and 45% in Brazil. The states of Southern and Southeastern Brazil presented lower mortality rates due to ischemic heart disease attributed to physical inactivity. If physical inactivity were eliminated in Brazil, mortality from ischemic heart disease would be reduced by 15.8% for men and 15.2% for women. CONCLUSIONS Over 25 years, the risk of exposure to physical inactivity in Brazil did not change and was high compared to global estimates. The decrease in ischemic heart disease mortality results from the improvement of health services in Brazil and the control of other risk factors. Approximately 15% of deaths from ischemic heart disease in Brazil could be avoided if people met the recommendations for physical activity.

Mortality due to noncommunicable diseases in Brazil, 1990 to 2015, according to estimates from the Global Burden of Disease study / Mortalidade por doenças não transmissíveis no Brasil, 1990 a 2015, segundo estimativas do estudo de Carga Global de Doenças

ABSTRACT CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading health problem globally and generate high numbers of premature deaths and loss of quality of life. The aim here was to describe the major groups of causes of death due to NCDs and the ranking of the leading causes of premature death between 1990 and 2015, according to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 study estimates for Brazil. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cross-sectional study covering Brazil and its 27 federal states. METHODS: This was a descriptive study on rates of mortality due to NCDs, with corrections for garbage codes and underreporting of deaths. RESULTS: This study shows the epidemiological transition in Brazil between 1990 and 2015, with increasing proportional mortality due to NCDs, followed by violence, and decreasing mortality due to communicable, maternal and neonatal causes within the global burden of diseases. NCDs had the highest mortality rates over the whole period, but with reductions in cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases and cancer. Diabetes increased over this period. NCDs were the leading causes of premature death (30 to 69 years): ischemic heart diseases and cerebrovascular diseases, followed by interpersonal violence, traffic injuries and HIV/AIDS. CONCLUSION: The decline in mortality due to NCDs confirms that improvements in disease control have been achieved in Brazil. Nonetheless, the high mortality due to violence is a warning sign. Through maintaining the current decline in NCDs, Brazil should meet the target of 25% reduction proposed by the World Health Organization by 2025.

RESUMO CONTEXTO E OBJETIVO: As doenças crônicas não transmissíveis (DCNT) são o principal problema de saúde global e geram um elevado número de mortes prematuras e perda de qualidade de vida. O objetivo foi descrever os principais grupos de causas de morte por DCNT e o ranking das causas de morte prematura entre 1990 a 2015, segundo estimativas do estudo Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 para o Brasil. TIPO DE ESTUDO E LOCAL: Estudo transversal do Brasil e 27 Unidades Federadas. MÉTODOS: Estudo descritivo das taxas de mortalidade por DCNT, com correções para sub-registro e códigos garbage. RESULTADOS: O estudo aponta a transição epidemiológica no Brasil entre 1990 e 2015, com o crescimento da mortalidade proporcional por DCNT, seguida das violências, e com a redução das causas maternas, infecciosas e infantis na carga global de doenças. As DCNT cursaram com as taxas de mortalidade mais elevadas em todo o período, mas com declínio para as doenças cardiovasculares, respiratórias crônicas e câncer. O diabetes aumentou no período. As DCNT lideram entre as causas de morte prematura (30 a 69 anos): doenças isquêmicas do coração e doenças cerebrovasculares, seguidas de violência interpessoal, lesão no trânsito e HIV/aids. CONCLUSÕES: A queda da mortalidade por DCNT confirma melhora do controle de doenças no país. Entretanto, a alta mortalidade por violência é um sinal de alerta. Mantendo-se a queda atual das DCNT, o Brasil deverá atingir as metas de redução propostas pela Organização Mundial de Saúde de 25% até 2025.

Principais causas da mortalidade na infância no Brasil, em 1990 e 2015: estimativas do estudo de Carga Global de Doença / Leading causes of child mortality in Brazil, in 1990 and 2015: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease study

RESUMO: Objetivo: Analisar as taxas de mortalidade e as principais causas de morte na infância no Brasil e estados, entre 1990 e 2015, utilizando estimativas do estudo Carga Global de Doença (Global Burden of Disease - GBD) 2015. Métodos: As fontes de dados foram óbitos e nascimentos estimados com base nos dados do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM), censos e pesquisas. Foram calculadas proporções e taxas por mil nascidos vivos (NV) para o total de óbitos e as principais causas de morte na infância. Resultados: O número estimado de óbitos para menores de 5 anos, no Brasil, foi de 191.505, em 1990, e 51.226, em 2015, sendo cerca de 90% mortes infantis. A taxa de mortalidade na infância no Brasil sofreu redução de 67,6%, entre 1990 e 2015, cumprindo a meta estabelecida nos Objetivos de Desenvolvimento do Milênio (ODM). A redução total das taxas foi, em geral, acima de 60% nos estados, sendo maior na região Nordeste. A disparidade entre as regiões foi reduzida, sendo que a razão entre o estado com a maior e a menor taxa diminuiu de 4,9, em 1990, para 2,3, em 2015. A prematuridade, apesar de queda de 72% nas taxas, figurou como a principal causa de óbito em ambos os anos, seguida da doença diarreica, em 1990, e das anomalias congênitas, da asfixia no parto e da sepse neonatal, em 2015. Conclusão: A queda nas taxas de mortalidade na infância representa um importante ganho no período, com redução de disparidades geográficas. As causas relacionadas ao cuidado em saúde na gestação, no parto e no nascimento figuram como as principais em 2015, em conjunto com as anomalias congênitas. Políticas públicas intersetoriais e de saúde específicas devem ser aprimoradas.

ABSTRACT: Objective: To analyze under-5 mortality rates and leading causes in Brazil and states in 1990 and 2015, using the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2015 estimates. Methods: The main sources of data for all-causes under-5 mortality and live births estimates were the mortality information system, surveys, and censuses. Proportions and rates per 1,000 live births (LB) were calculated for total deaths and leading causes. Results: Estimates of under-5 deaths in Brazil were 191,505 in 1990, and 51,226 in 2015, 90% of which were infant deaths. The rates per 1,000 LB showed a reduction of 67.6% from 1990 to 2015, achieving the proposed target established by the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The reduction generally was more than 60% in states, with a faster reduction in the poorest Northeast region. The ratio of the highest and lowest rates in the states decreased from 4.9 in 1990 to 2.3 in 2015, indicating a reduction in socioeconomic regional disparities. Although prematurity showed a 72% reduction, it still remains as the leading cause of death (COD), followed by diarrheal diseases in 1990, and congenital anomalies, birth asphyxia and septicemia neonatal in 2015. Conclusion: Under-5 mortality has decreased over the past 25 years, with reduction of regional disparities. However, pregnancy and childbirth-related causes remain as major causes of death, together with congenital anomalies. Intersectoral and specific public health policies must be continued to improve living conditions and health care in order to achieve further reduction of under-5 mortality rates in Brazil.

Mortalidade e anos de vida perdidos por violências interpessoais e autoprovocadas no Brasil e Estados: análise das estimativas do Estudo Carga Global de Doença, 1990 e 2015 / Mortality and years of life lost by interpersonal violence and self-harm: in Brazil and Brazilian states: analysis of the estimates of the Global Burden of Disease Study, 1990 and 2015

RESUMO: Objetivo: Analisar a mortalidade e os anos de vida perdidos por morte ou incapacidade (Disability-Adjusted Life Years - DALYs) por violências interpessoais e autoprovocadas, comparando 1990 e 2015, no Brasil e nas Unidades Federadas, utilizando estimativas produzidas pelo estudo Carga Global de Doença 2015 (GBD 2015). Métodos: Análise de dados secundários das estimativas do GBD 2015, com produção de taxas padronizadas de mortes e DALYs. A principal fonte de dados de óbitos foi o Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade, submetido à correção do sub-registro de óbitos e redistribuição de códigos garbage. Resultados: De 1990 a 2015, observou-se estabilidade das taxas de mortalidade por homicídios, com variação percentual de -0,9%, passando de 28,3/100 mil habitantes (II 95% 26,9-32,1), em 1990, para 27,8/100 mil (II 95% 24,3-29,8), em 2015. As taxas de homicídio foram mais altas em Alagoas e Pernambuco, e ocorreu redução em São Paulo (-40,9%). As taxas de suicídio variaram em -19%, saindo de 8,1/100 mil (II 95% 7,5-8,6), em 1990, para 6,6/100 mil (II 95% 6,1-7,9), em 2015. Taxas mais elevadas ocorreram no Rio Grande do Sul. No ranking de causas externas por Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), predominaram as agressões por arma de fogo, seguidas de acidentes de transporte e em sexto lugar lesões autoprovocadas. Conclusões: O estudo aponta a importância das causas externas entre jovens e homens na morte prematura e em incapacidades, constituindo um problema prioritário no país. O estudo Carga Global de Doença poderá apoiar políticas públicas de prevenção de violência.

ABSTRACT: Objective: To analyze mortality and years of life lost due to death or disability (disability-adjusted life years - DALYs) for interpersonal violence and self-harm, comparing 1990 and 2015, in Brazil and Federated Units, using estimates produced by the Global Burden of Disease 2015 (GBD 2015). Methods: Secondary data analysis of estimates from the GBD 2015, producing standardized death rates and years of life lost due to death or disability. The main source of death data was the Mortality Information System, submitted to correction of underreporting of deaths and redistribution of garbage codes. Results: From 1990 to 2015, homicide mortality rates were stable, with a percentage variation of -0.9%, from 28.3/100 thousand inhabitants (95% UI 26.9-32.1) in 1990 to 27.8/100,000 (95% UI 24.3-29.8) in 2015. Homicide rates were higher in Alagoas and Pernambuco, and there was a reduction in São Paulo (-40.9%). Suicide rates decreased by 19%, from 8.1/100,000 (95% UI 7.5-8.6) in 1990 to 6.6/100,000 (95% UI 6.1-7,9) in 2015. Higher rates were found in Rio Grande do Sul. In the ranking of external causes for years of life lost due to death or disability (DALYs), firearm aggression predominated, followed by transportation accidents; self-inflicted injuries were in sixth place. Conclusions: The study shows the importance of external causes among young people and men as a cause of premature death and disabilities, which is a priority problem in the country. The Global Burden of Disease study may support public policies for violence prevention.